This afternoon Melissa and I went out to visit my parents, and help them move some office furniture around. Mike and Maria were also there, so of course we all had a great time. We introduced everyone to the game of Swap!. Everything was going well until I spilled my drink while trying to slap the slap card. It was all downhill from there. Right after cleaning up the entire mess, Mike decided to show me up and spill his drink also! His drink got over all the cards so I had to dry a lot of them out individually. We then decided to play a much more tame game of Uno. After playing that for a while, Mike decided to spill his drink yet again.
While playing Swap!, we figured out that if we moved our hands the right way, and make the right sound, we could get the card we needed to show up. It ended up working 6 times in a row. I’m sure you are curious about the probability of that happening, so I decided to calculate it out for you. In order to do so, we can’t count the first time that it worked. That is because we had to try a number of different techniques before we found one that worked, so the first one was a given. So the probability is calculated as the number of possible outcomes each time, raised to the power of the number of times it happened successively. Since we were trying to get a specific color each time, and there is only 1 correct color out of 4, it ends up being 4 to the 5th power (4×4x4×4x4), or 1 in 1024.
I also caught an opposing team member trying to cheat again. Of course they try to deny it every time. One time I caught Melissa pointing to her blue shirt. The last card that she had was blue. They tried to convice me that it was only a coincidence. Tonight, I caught Maria pointing to the red in her remaining Uno card. Of course her last card was red, another coincidence supposedly. So while we are calculating probability, lets take a look at this one. The probability of me guessing which card someone has each time is 1 in 4. If you take 2 successive cases, it is 1 in 16. 3 successive cases would be 1 in 64. It quickly becomes apparent that it is unlikely that I did not break their code each time. Yet they still deny it.